AGP Executive Report

Markets & Rates: Asian stocks extended a bruising selloff as US jobs data revived rate-hike fears, hitting semiconductors hardest; South Korea’s KOSPI slid and Taiwan’s Taiex plunged with TSMC suffering a record intraday drop. AI Infrastructure: Jefferies says data-centre demand is structurally outpacing supply, with only 8.9GW operational in 2025 versus 21.1GW demand, keeping shortages in place for years. Energy Outlook: Fitch projects Brent averaging $87/bbl in 2026, with prices easing after July if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Corporate Moves: APSEZ won a 10-year marine services contract for Argentina’s first LNG export corridor to India; Softcell gained Zscaler delivery authorization; TruckMountForums acquired Bane-Clene to unite cleaning equipment and chemistry expertise. Policy & Business Climate: Jordan and Iraq leaders put security at the centre of ties; Malaysia flagged misuse of visitor/student visas for business; Bahrain firms are reshaping supply chains for resilience. Green Economy: EU green-economy employment rose to 5.8m full-time equivalents by 2023, led by energy-efficient construction. Regional Growth: Japan’s Q1 GDP was revised to 1.8% annualized growth as capex slowed.

Airlines Outlook: IATA cut its 2026 profit forecast for the industry to about $23bn, roughly half the prior estimate, as West Asia war disruptions and high fuel prices bite—though other regions still see profits, just lower. Middle East Shock: With the Iran conflict nearing 100 days, OECD and other bodies warn the damage is shifting from oil spikes to weaker growth, higher inflation, and strained supply chains. US Rates & Jobs: US stocks slid after a strong May jobs print (172,000) kept “higher for longer” rate expectations alive, while oil jumped again on Strait of Hormuz tensions. India Growth Push: PM Modi’s Economic Advisory Council meeting focused on accelerating reforms and “Ease of Living/Doing Business,” with West Asia-linked costs (oil, fertiliser, transport) and rupee weakness in view. Trade & Industry: Thailand signaled it may escalate a shrimp import dispute with Malaysia to WTO/ASEAN if talks fail, while Dubai launched “SME in a Box” to bundle licensing, banking, payments, telecoms and logistics into one faster setup path. Energy Markets: OPEC+ agreed a second straight July output increase of 188,000 bpd, aiming to keep the oil market steady. Local Business Climate: North Yorkshire’s roadworks leak case shows how slow public fixes can shut down a pub’s operations and footfall.

Aviation Decarbonisation: IATA says Sustainable Aviation Fuel will hit only about 0.8% of aviation fuel use in 2026, despite net-zero pledges, as policy incentives and feedstock supply lag. AI & Markets: Retail investors piled into semiconductor stocks in May, but analysts warn the AI chip rally may be late-cycle as chip shares slide and volatility rises. US Economy & Crypto: The US added 172,000 jobs in May and unemployment held at 4.3%, pushing rate-cut expectations down and hitting Bitcoin near $62,000. Global Energy Shock: The Iran war is driving a wider energy and trade shock, raising recession and inflation risks across markets. Cross-Border Investing: Hong Kong’s Stock Connect still can’t be used for mainland AI IPOs, leaving investors locked out of new listings. Trade & Policy: World Bank urges Thailand to reform business laws before its B-READY assessment, focusing on how rules affect trade costs and dispute resolution. Local Business Relief (UK): HMRC clarified that VAT-registered firms can donate eligible goods to registered charities without triggering VAT, easing pressure on charities. Ghana Diaspora Claims: Ghana’s foreign minister rejects claims returnees from South Africa are a burden, citing record diaspora remittances and promising compensation processes for destroyed businesses.

Digital & AI for trade: APEC’s Eduardo Pedrosa says AI and digital cooperation are reshaping economic integration, with SMEs gaining easier market entry through platforms and flexible, principle-based policy. Bangladesh growth plan: Bangladesh is drafting a new model to reach a $1 trillion economy by 2034, aiming to cut bureaucracy, revive industry, and expand health, education and grassroots services. India growth measurement shift: India’s GDP outlook is being reframed after a base-year change (2011-12 to 2022-23), with implications for how growth is tracked amid West Asia-driven uncertainty. Russia-India business push: SPIEF’s Russia–India dialogue focused on energy, transport, IT, science and education, and how companies can accelerate joint projects through BRICS and the North–South corridor. Markets & rates: Gold and silver fell sharply after stronger US jobs data lifted expectations of higher-for-longer rates. Japan corporate real estate: Japan’s corporate property sales hit an 18-year high as firms sell assets to boost profitability. SME trade resilience (US): A FedEx index finds most small businesses see trade as key to growth, with many raising inventory, diversifying suppliers, and considering nearshoring/reshoring. Local business & policy: Ghana’s Mahama visited diaspora-linked businesses in London; Pakistan’s budget debate spotlights IT exports; and Nigeria’s youth group flags illegal mining as a threat to security and investment.

India Growth Beat: India’s economy grew 7.8% in Q4 and 7.7% for FY26, with PM Modi pointing to resilience amid global turmoil. Central Banking: The RBI kept the repo rate at 5.25% but raised its FY27 inflation forecast and trimmed growth expectations, citing oil and geopolitical risks. UK Small Business Support: The UK announced a funding package to expand business debt advice, targeting 16,000 more firms over three years. Trade & Imports: China plans 100+ import promotion events in 2026 to pull in high-quality goods, starting with Belarus and Germany. Markets & Tech Selloff: Wall Street slid sharply after strong US jobs data pushed up rate-hike odds, hitting chip stocks hard and wiping about $1.3 trillion from chipmakers. Local Business Impact: A New Forest post office inside a Morrisons Daily is set to close, raising concerns for elderly residents and small firms relying on banking and parcels. Business Dispute: A judge resolved a long-running land fight between business partners in Aranguez tied to a stalled commercial mall plan.

US Jobs Shock: The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, beating forecasts, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, keeping Fed rate-hike fears alive. Wall Street Selloff: The Nasdaq 100 slid 3.5% as tech and chip stocks fell on higher-rate anxiety tied to the jobs data and ongoing AI spending. AI + Markets: Investors are increasingly split between “old” and “new” economy winners, while data-center buildouts are boosting industrials even as Big Tech dominates attention. Oil Risk Watch: Global crude inventories are running dangerously low amid uncertainty around Strait of Hormuz traffic, raising the odds of another oil price shock. India Reform Push: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Modi’s “Reform Express” stays on track as FY2025-26 growth hit 7.7%. Local Business Boost: East Williamsburg won $20m to upgrade corridors, public spaces, workforce programs and housing. Small Business Pulse: Philippines business name registrations jumped 19.69% in May, signaling continued entrepreneurship momentum. Policy + Security: Brussels urged EU firms to diversify supply chains and build resilience as fragmentation deepens.

Retail M&A: Japan’s Yamada Holdings and Edion agreed to merge under a holding company to be set up in Oct 2027, aiming to boost private-brand product development and efficiency as competition and e-commerce pressure rise. Markets & AI: Asian stocks slid as investors took profits on AI-linked tech after Broadcom’s weaker results; South Korea’s KOSPI fell sharply and triggered a trading pause, while China held steadier with financials and property offsetting mild tech weakness. Monetary policy: India’s RBI kept the repo rate at 5.25%, signaling a cautious stance amid global uncertainty. Tax & cross-border scrutiny: New US corporation tax rules could raise pressure on Ireland, after Pfizer disclosed large Ireland tax payments under updated reporting requirements. Trade & tariffs: China’s business groups opposed proposed US tariffs tied to forced-labor claims, calling them unilateral and protectionist. Energy & jobs: Canada and South Korea expanded cooperation on energy security and critical minerals, targeting major economic impact for Canada. Climate & health: Pakistan leaders warned climate change threatens public health, food security and economic stability, urging faster action. Local business climate: Bangladesh outlined budget reforms to cut red tape and expand participation, including duty-free bonded-warehouse treatment for exporters.

AI & Data Centres: Schneider Electric says Malaysia’s next AI infrastructure push must be planned early—power, cooling, water, renewables and monitoring—because demand is rising fast. Senior Living Demand: Malaysia’s ageing shift (65+ to 14.5% by 2040) is reshaping housing and healthcare, with long-term care costs climbing. Energy Transition: Malaysia’s TNB says it has delivered 4.3GW of installed renewables and links grid upgrades to growing data-centre demand. U.S. Macro Watch: UCLA Anderson warns Iran-linked oil shocks are now the main inflation risk, with inflation peaking near 4.5% and employment still weak in California. South Africa Local Economy: Johannesburg business groups back a government-business partnership model but want an accountable, election-ready “counterparty.” Pakistan Budget Anxiety: Exporters warn FY27 could hurt trade if taxes and costs stay high, urging export-led growth and cheaper energy. Circular Economy Push (India): Navi Mumbai unveils a “Recycle Hub” roadmap for POP idol recovery, textile waste and circular systems. Environment & Industry (India): Bhiwandi pollution tensions escalate as officials face calls for criminal action against alleged polluters. Trade & Travel: Hong Kong and Uzbekistan agree to discuss a mutual 30-day visa-free deal to boost tourism and commerce. Export Finance: Finnvera and KUKE sign an export finance and reinsurance framework for projects involving Finland and Poland.

Markets & Energy: Asian stocks slid as US-Iran tensions flared again, pushing investors into a risk-off mood; oil eased from recent highs after a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, but volatility stayed high. Corporate Governance: India’s SEBI barred Rajesh Exports promoter Rajesh Mehta from trading after alleging major financial misrepresentation and misuse of funds, with an interim ex-parte order restraining dealings. AI in Business: Chief Justice Andrew Bell warned AI is moving faster than corporate governance can keep up, raising questions for directors on oversight and accountability; meanwhile, local economic development groups are running free workshops to help firms use Claude and Microsoft Copilot responsibly. Trade & Policy: The IMF said Saudi Arabia’s economy remains resilient despite Middle East war disruptions, citing rerouted oil flows; global growth forecasts are also being revised downward amid Iran-war risks. SME & Payments: Paybis says stablecoins are rapidly shifting from retail trading to business payments, with B2B driving most stablecoin volume. Local Economy: Trinidad and Tobago business groups urged evidence-based justification for any State of Emergency extension, warning against replacing long-term crime strategy with emergency powers.

US-Iran Shock to Markets: U.S. services activity picked up in May as firms front-loaded orders and rebuilt inventories ahead of higher costs tied to the Iran conflict, while input prices jumped sharply—adding pressure to inflation and corporate margins. Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. proposed new forced-labour tariffs covering 60 economies, with duties potentially rising up to 12.5% for some countries—raising the stakes for exporters and supply-chain costs. Energy & Shipping Resilience: The IMF said Saudi Arabia is holding up better than peers thanks to rerouted oil exports via the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports, though momentum is still disrupted. Corporate Deals: Orano Canada and Cameco agreed to buy up TEPCO’s 5% stake in the Cigar Lake uranium JV, lifting their ownership ahead of a Q3 2026 close. Nature Finance: Ecobank launched a $450m Nature Bond, aiming to channel more private capital into sustainable agriculture and biodiversity protection. UK Growth Watch: Britain’s services PMI slipped into contraction in May as demand softened and input costs rose. Local Business Pulse: In Wisconsin, small businesses are expanding post-pandemic but still lag on longer-term job growth; in Pembrokeshire, Fishguard bucked closures with 25 new high-street openings in 18 months.

Australia Economy: Australia’s March-quarter GDP grew just 0.3% as cyclone disruptions hit exports and net trade dragged growth, though business investment rose 6% on a surge in machinery and equipment spending tied to data centres. Turkey Growth: Turkey posted modest Q1 2026 growth of 2.5% YoY, led by services and household consumption, while exports fell 12.7% and industry contracted. South Africa Power & Budget: President Cyril Ramaphosa said load reduction is ending as tax revenue stays strong and debt stabilises, but warned the Gulf war could slow growth and job creation. Central Banking Watch: New Zealand’s Reserve Bank kept policy steady with a more hawkish path implied, while India’s RBI is widely expected to hold rates in June before potential hikes in FY27. Trade & Tariffs: The USTR proposed 12.5% additional duties on India and 59 other economies over forced-labour import failures, raising the risk of broader tariff escalation. AI & Markets: Robot-related Korean stocks jumped on physical AI optimism, while oil rose on renewed Middle East tensions and investors weighed inflation and geopolitics. Local Business Pressure: Idaho’s new bathroom law is prompting employers to prepare for July 1, and UK enforcement data shows record raids and fines on businesses hiring illegal workers. Nonprofit Stress: Phoenix Pride filed for Chapter 11 as corporate sponsorship and donations decline amid shifting political climates. Energy Transition: Malaysia highlighted partnerships as key to scaling its energy transition at ETCon26.

Trade & Tariffs: A US trade-court judge ordered a Trump official to appear next week over delays in tariff refunds, escalating a standoff over who qualifies and whether future payouts can be capped. AI & Data Centres: Schneider Electric unveiled an 800-volt DC “sidecar” power system aimed at boosting next-gen NVIDIA GPU performance while easing AI data-centre electricity demand. Markets & Inflation: India’s RBI is watching oil-driven inflation risks as petrol/diesel hikes could lift CPI pressures, while the Philippines’ stocks jumped as fuel-price rollbacks and a stronger peso drew bargain hunters. Corporate Deals: General Mills will sell Häagen-Dazs mainland retail operations to a local investor group led by Ningji Lemon Tea, while WTW bought Redefind to expand regulated insurance for crypto and tokenized assets. Business & Growth: Canada’s PM Mark Carney said the economy is “settling in” after a technical recession, and Hub Packaging acquired Ireland’s Faleen Sales to deepen its meat-processing packaging footprint. Local Economy: Zimbabwe framed climate action as a governance and economic issue, and the Cumberland Valley recognized community projects spanning revitalization, historic preservation and sustainability. Security & Crime: Chicago police investigated smash-and-grab burglaries targeting multiple nearby businesses on Archer Avenue.

Markets & Geopolitics: Global stocks stayed near record highs as AI optimism and strong earnings offset renewed US-Iran tensions that are keeping oil prices elevated; Policy & Business Security: Connecticut’s Secretary of the State warned firms about a spoofing email using a fake OpenSign link to trick businesses into signing undisclosed documents; Tech & Corporate Earnings: Hewlett Packard Enterprise surged on record backlog and AI server demand, while iCapital named Brooks Entwistle to lead its fast-growing international business; Regional Economy & Trade: Hong Kong shares jumped and Singapore’s STI rose in May on inflows, while ASEAN wrapped up talks on a digital economy pact covering cross-border data, payments and online consumer protection; Energy & Risk: The Strait of Hormuz shock is reshaping Asia’s energy outlook, with shipping disruption removing millions of barrels from normal flows; Local Business Climate: Honolulu’s mayor threatened to veto budget cuts to its economic revitalization office after an audit found it missed much of its mission; Regulation & Compliance: Shasta County cited tobacco retailers after underage decoy sales, and Lordstown approved a 180-day moratorium on permits for small mobile reactors and battery storage systems.

World Cup Economics: A new reality check on the 2026 FIFA World Cup’s US impact says the boost may be far smaller than FIFA’s earlier projections as hosting costs rise and ticket availability remains high. Energy & Markets: US stocks slid on Iran-war concerns as oil prices surged, while AI optimism kept some indexes near records. Russia Trade Controls: Russia imposed a jet-fuel export ban until Nov. 30 to protect domestic supply, with limited exceptions. Canada Growth Debate: Conservatives accused PM Mark Carney of dodging questions after Canada logged another GDP contraction, while critics argue the deeper problem is weak investment and policy uncertainty. Corporate Deals & Listings: Barrick Mining is weighing a London listing for its Africa business, and Greatland secured a $500m corporate debt facility for working capital. Africa Finance Shift: A report says private credit is overtaking equity as Africa’s preferred funding model as venture funding tightens. Digital Payments Push: Nigeria’s central bank unveiled a Payments System Vision 2028 to expand secure digital payments and boost trade. Business Confidence Pressure (UK): A Food and Drink Federation study points to sharply lower sector confidence amid inflation, employer cost pressures, and trade uncertainty. Tourism Multiplier (Malaysia): Perak is betting on cruise tourism—like the Star Dream Cruise—to spur local spending in food, retail, and transport. Regulation & Transparency (Pakistan): SECP introduced a statutory compliance certificate framework to strengthen corporate transparency and investor confidence.

IMF Tax Push in Sri Lanka: The IMF urged Colombo to broaden the tax base and rely less on motor-vehicle import duties, income tax and VAT after last year’s revenue surge was driven by windfalls and capital spending undershoots. Policy Debate: Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith called for a rethink of Sri Lanka’s open economic model and raised doubts about continuing the IMF programme, while also urging stronger anti-corruption action and relief for cost-of-living pressures. Trade Deals & Export Growth: India and Oman launched their CEPA, targeting a 50% jump in India’s goods exports over three years, with textiles, gems and jewelry, pharma and engineering in focus. Market Mood on Iran Risk: Japan and South Korea stocks hit fresh records as AI optimism met oil gains tied to Iran-war ceasefire hopes, while Middle East-linked uncertainty kept traders cautious. Gig Economy Rules: The ILO is moving toward the first global convention to set ground rules for gig workers, aiming to protect core labour rights and fair pay for platform workers. Local Business & Compliance: Nepal’s mobile industry groups formed an alliance to tackle grey-market imports and push clearer policy, while the BIR reminded e-marketplaces and digital firms to submit withholding tax alphalists with filings. Corporate Finance: UOB signed an MoU with Vietnam’s FPT to modernise banking using AI, cloud and automation, and Singtel secured a $1.5b revolving credit facility for general corporate use.

Venezuela Recovery Push: Delcy Rodríguez said Venezuela is steadily improving via communal production, pointing to the “El Cafetal” roaster and nearly 4 million quintals of coffee (2025-26) for domestic use and export. Argentina Politics vs Forecasts: A fresh look at Milei’s turnaround claims inflation has fallen to 34% (April) and exports nearly hit $9bn, after 108 economists warned of “devastation” before his 2023 win. AI Meets Daily Life in China: Xinhua reports AI is moving from demos to classrooms, public services and manufacturing, with smart teaching tools and robotics showcased at Tianjin’s World Intelligence Expo. US Inflation vs Wages Debate: Kevin Hassett argued real wages are rising even as CPI climbed 3.8% y/y, while polls show most Americans feel stressed about the economy amid Iran-war pressures. Semiconductor Bubble Talk: Bloomberg highlights a chip-led rally and the risk of an AI-driven overheating debate as memory makers surge. India Ease-of-Doing-Business: The Centre urged states to speed legal metrology reforms, shifting weights-and-measures compliance toward registration. Local Business Pressure: Traders in Wales say higher business rates plus the Old Wye Bridge closure are hitting footfall and sales. Trade Deal Watch: India-Oman CEPA starts June 1, offering duty-free access for Indian exports, with textiles and agriculture flagged as early beneficiaries.