AGP Executive Report

Energy and Data Centres: Johor plans to add about 5 GW of solar capacity over four to five years as data-centre growth drives a sharp rise in electricity demand; 21 of 65 approved projects are already operating. Growth and Industry: Cambodia’s 2026 growth forecast has been cut to 3.5% from 3.9%. The government is backing small-scale manufacturing and higher-value food processing to reduce reliance on raw farm exports amid weak tourism and rising fuel costs. Gulf Investment: Brookfield has opened a Doha office for its global credit business, deepening its Gulf presence as it pursues a planned $20 billion AI-infrastructure venture with Qatar’s QIA. Inflation Watch: Australia’s central bank says government spending is adding to demand and capacity pressures alongside higher oil costs, sharpening the focus on upcoming inflation data and the prospect of another rate rise. Trade and Power: Nepal’s electricity-export revenue rose despite flood damage to hydropower plants, with shipments to Bangladesh resuming. Corporate Moves: Astro Malaysia agreed to sell its broadband assets to Maxis for RM83 million, freeing capital to focus on content and entertainment. Finance: Islamic finance now accounts for 48% of Malaysia’s financial assets, with business financing and MSME microfinance both expanding.

AI Investment: Wall Street’s retreat has sharpened doubts about the boom’s economics. Apollo economist Torsten Slok says compute demand is slowing and costs may exceed the returns users gain, raising risks for heavily financed data-center projects. Nigeria: President Bola Tinubu launched his re-election campaign as voters face a severe cost-of-living squeeze. His subsidy and currency reforms have improved public finances and investor confidence, but pushed up everyday costs. Markets and Energy: Oil has climbed above $116 a barrel as conflict risks fuel inflation concerns, while global stocks have weakened. Gulf Outlook: The IMF expects the region’s economy to contract 4.8% in 2026, with Saudi Arabia down 3.3%, before a possible rebound next year—though uncertainty remains high. Namibia: The government cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.3% from 3.1%, citing weaker first-half performance and risks including fuel prices and soft global demand.

Corporate Earnings: Omnicom posted 7.2% organic growth in the third quarter, led by media, while its adjusted operating margin widened to 18.2%. Markets and Energy: Brent crude climbed above $116 a barrel as Middle East tensions and concerns over AI spending weighed on stocks. Investment and Trade: Malaysia’s Selangor state is targeting RM90 billion in investment this year after attracting RM70 billion in the first half; Kenya says its first commercial crude export is on track for December 1. Business Pressures: A survey of 840 Scottish firms found tax rises, inflation and policy changes top concerns, while two-thirds worry about cyberattacks. In France, businesses are bracing for renewed protests after last week’s looting; Bpifrance has opened applications for repayable, zero-interest loans of up to €50,000 for damaged firms. India’s Postal Business: India Post reported first-half revenue of Rs 8,212.7 crore, up 24% year over year, with parcel revenue growing 71% in the second quarter.

Market Turmoil: U.S. stocks fell again Friday as oil surged on Middle East tensions and investors questioned the returns on heavy AI spending. The Dow dropped 1.2%, while Brent crude climbed above $117 a barrel. Consumer Outlook: U.S. sentiment slipped to 48 in October, near a record low, as higher prices weighed on household purchasing power ahead of midterm elections. Industrial Strategy: Malaysia is urging local companies to make more high-value components, build technology and expand exports to reduce reliance on imports. AI Investment: Australia’s business lobby warns that inconsistent data-centre rules could drive investment elsewhere, even as the government plans tighter energy and water requirements. Workforce Pressure: A child-care shortfall in Missouri’s Stone and Taney counties is disrupting employers and limiting parents’ ability to work; a proposed cost-sharing plan aims to ease the crunch.

Market Turmoil: AI-spending doubts sent the Nasdaq down 2.6% on Thursday, while Brent crude climbed to $113.17 a barrel as Middle East tensions stoked inflation fears. Investors sought safety, driving a sharp fall in US Treasury yields. Business Activity: UK private-sector activity rose to its strongest level since February, with hiring and new orders improving. But rising business costs are strengthening expectations of further interest-rate hikes. Trade Shifts: South African exports to China rose 25% as Pretoria seeks alternatives amid uncertainty over US trade access; Beijing’s zero-tariff scheme is creating new openings for some exporters. China’s Economy: State-backed ETF buying helped lift Chinese shares on Friday, but the market remains under pressure from weak demand and doubts that AI firms can justify high valuations. UK Business Costs: The government says plans to simplify reporting and extend tariff suspensions could save firms nearly £800 million a year.

Public Finances: Malaysia’s government estimates its remaining 1MDB burden at RM20.1 billion after RM31.3 billion in recoveries; it has already paid RM42.5 billion in principal, interest and other commitments. Small Businesses: Malaysia says employers’ 2% pension contribution for foreign workers balances worker protection with business costs; 86% of the 78,129 contributing employers are SMEs. In Canada, a new retention and retraining program offers employers up to $1,000 per worker to help avoid layoffs and build skills. Growth Outlook: The IMF raised its forecast for UAE growth in 2027 to 7.7%, while Southeast Asia’s digital economy is projected to grow 17% this year to $368 billion, with AI-enabled services among the growth drivers. Markets: Tech-led losses hit global shares as investors questioned the cost of AI investment; oil prices also climbed amid Gulf tensions. Trade and Infrastructure: Malaysia’s transport minister said stronger regional connectivity and more efficient freight movement can lower trade barriers and support supply chains.

Markets: Asian shares slid as investors questioned the cost and returns of the AI boom; Nasdaq futures fell nearly 2% and Brent crude topped $112 a barrel. Strong SpaceX results briefly lifted Wall Street, but mixed Tesla and Meta reports renewed doubts about AI spending. Small Business: A Canadian survey found 26% of owners had to personally guarantee business loans, while 21% used or sought personal credit to support their firms. Finding customers and rising costs were their biggest challenges. Inflation and Rates: New Zealand’s inflation rate eased to 3.7% but remained above the central bank’s target, strengthening expectations of an interest-rate hike next week. Trade and Industry: Malaysia expects palm oil prices to stay above RM4,600 a tonne in November as seasonal production declines and biodiesel demand support prices; lower Indian import duties could also lift shipments. Cybersecurity: Newly exposed flaws in widely used PHP software prompted businesses and government agencies to patch systems or take websites offline, highlighting the operational risks of vulnerable digital infrastructure.

Economic Transformation: Sarawak plans to shift from assembly work to technology creation over the next five years, aiming to boost competitiveness and escape the middle-income trap. Export Boom: China’s exports jumped 36.3% in September, their biggest monthly rise since 2010, while South Korean semiconductor exports surged 222.5% in the first 20 days of October. The AI-led gains contrast with China’s weak domestic demand. Markets: Wall Street’s Nasdaq rallied as SpaceX reported its first profit as a public company and Super Micro forecasted strong results, easing some doubts about AI spending. Trade and Investment: Qatari and French business leaders called for industrial partnerships that move beyond trade deals into investment, production and innovation. Inflation and Growth: UK inflation reached 3.5% in September, renewing business calls for lower costs. Argentina’s economy shrank 1.7% year-on-year in August, with manufacturing and trade among the weakest sectors. Debt and Taxes: Citadel founder Ken Griffin warned that extending U.S. tax cuts without fiscal room risks worsening a national debt that has topped $40 trillion. Small Business: Saskatchewan counts 156,850 small businesses, which employ about 30% of the province’s workforce and contribute more than $8.3 billion in wages.

Markets: Global shares edged higher on strong earnings, while retreating oil prices helped Wall Street. AI spending and profitability concerns continued to weigh on tech stocks. China: GDP growth beat expectations as exports offset weak domestic demand, underscoring the economy’s reliance on overseas sales. AI & Business: SpaceX reported a $4.4 billion quarterly profit as revenue surged 161% to $14.6 billion, boosted by AI and satellite services. Microsoft also expanded sovereign-cloud tools, giving businesses more control over data and AI systems. Competition: Taiwan blocked Grab’s $600 million purchase of Foodpanda’s local delivery business, ruling that promised safeguards would not resolve competition concerns. Europe: ECB economists said lower fossil-fuel dependence, public spending and AI investment have helped the euro zone withstand this year’s energy shock.

SpaceX Surge: Revenue jumped 161% to $14.6 billion in the third quarter, with AI bringing in $7.6 billion and helping deliver a $4.4 billion profit. The company is also ramping up investment, spending $19.6 billion on capital projects. Small-Business Squeeze: A U.S. survey found 64% of small-business owners have cut or skipped their own pay as costs rise; 78% say higher expenses are hurting their ability to operate or grow. Rates and Markets: Economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates in October but raise them by a quarter-point in December as inflation persists. Wall Street rose Tuesday as investors shifted toward healthcare and value stocks, while technology shares lagged amid doubts about AI spending. Global Reforms: Economists urged Bangladesh to strengthen tax collection, improve financial-sector governance and better target subsidies to build resilience.

Markets: Asian and European shares fell as oil climbed above $110 a barrel and investors questioned AI-related valuations ahead of major earnings. US tech stocks had rebounded on Monday, leaving markets choppy. Growth and Trade: Malaysia’s economy grew 5.3% in the third quarter, with exports and manufacturing supporting expansion and reviving debate over a possible rate hike. Indonesia reported 5.45% growth in the first half and plans heavier government spending, though its oil and gas import bill has surged. Corporate Strategy: Accenture is reviewing a possible sale of its Greater China business, reportedly valued at up to US$1.5 billion, amid investor scrutiny and rising AI demand. Business Oversight: Malaysia says authorities froze RM4.3 billion and seized RM1 billion in assets linked to alleged corporate crimes from late 2022 through September 2026. Cloud Disruption: Google Cloud service failures in London disrupted businesses, including fintech services, highlighting the operational risks of reliance on major cloud providers.

Markets: Wall Street’s tech-led rebound lifted the Nasdaq 1.1% and S&P 500 0.4%, but most U.S. shares fell and European markets dropped amid French unrest and rising bond yields. China: The economy grew 4.5% in the July–September quarter on strong exports, while weak domestic demand remained a concern; Beijing will tighten controls on some drone components from Nov. 18. Australia: An opinion piece warns the RBA’s high interest rates risk pushing the economy toward recession as unemployment rises and consumer confidence weakens. Trade: New Zealand’s free-trade deal with India is now in force, removing tariffs on 57% of its exports initially, with cuts covering 95% over time. Infrastructure: Malaysia projects data centres will require 8.39 gigawatts of power and 389 million litres of water daily by 2030. Corporate finance: Malaysia’s government says it has made no commitment to provide AirAsia with public funds or guarantees, while Wintrust reported record nine-month net income, up 17% from a year earlier.

China’s Growth: GDP expanded 4.5% in the third quarter, driven by exports and manufacturing, while weak consumer demand and a strained property sector remain concerns. Beijing also proposed export controls covering 40 technologies, including AI, biomedicine and solar. Market Jitters: Asian shares were mixed to lower as investors questioned whether heavy AI investment will pay off. In Japan, the Nikkei fell 0.6%; in Indonesia, the market plunged 11.6% on Friday after MSCI proposed a downgrade that could trigger billions in outflows. CIMB expects Indonesia’s central bank to raise rates this week to support the rupiah. Business Cash Flow: Smaller firms are turning to credit to cover operating costs. Loan enquiries among small builders rose 13.6%, while a growing share of invoices is being paid late, pointing to mounting cash pressure.

Gulf Industry: GCC industrial investment has reached about $426 billion, with nearly 22,000 factories employing 1.7 million people. China supplies about 20% of the bloc’s imports. Dubai Economy: Real GDP fell 2.3% year over year to Dh473 billion in the first half, as growth in finance, healthcare and construction helped offset weakness in tourism and transport. Trade Ties: China and Europe are seeking greater certainty for businesses, while Beijing says it is ready to import more from Tajikistan and encourage Chinese investment there. Global Risks: The IMF warns that conflict, trade tensions and debt threaten the world economy; Washington has paused some Russia sanctions for 60 days to assess their economic impact. France’s Businesses: Riots and looting have hit shops across the country, as business leaders call for stronger protection. India’s Space Economy: The sector, worth about $9 billion, could grow to $40–45 billion within seven to eight years as private ventures expand.

Markets: Chip stocks fell for an eighth straight session as investors questioned how AI infrastructure will be financed; the semiconductor index lost 11.4% for the week, while CoreWeave dropped 25%. Energy and Trade: A fire at Russia’s major St. Petersburg oil export terminal adds to supply concerns as Washington takes 60 days to assess the economic impact of proposed Russia sanctions and tariffs. Technology Controls: China proposed export restrictions covering AI, chip-design and solar-manufacturing technologies, raising the stakes for companies and countries seeking access to critical production know-how. Borrowing Costs: ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions and could deepen Europe’s slowdown. Vietnam’s deputy prime minister, meanwhile, urged banks to cut lending rates by 1.5 to 2 percentage points to ease pressure on businesses. UK Business Policy: The government is reportedly preparing business-rate relief for about 75,000 small-business properties, with higher taxes on online retailers expected to help fund the change.

Energy and Trade: Algeria reported $37.5 billion in hydrocarbon export revenue for the first nine months of 2026 as the government launched a permanent committee to review import applications. Critical Minerals: The World Bank plans to quintuple its critical-minerals business within five years, aiming to help resource-rich countries build local industries and retain more value. AI Investment: AI adoption is rising among Philippine businesses, but just 17% have a plan to scale it and only 6% say it is fully integrated into operations. Market Risks: The IMF says the global economy has weathered shocks better than expected but warns that the AI boom may be masking deeper weaknesses; chip stocks have suffered a prolonged sell-off amid concerns about AI-related debt. Trade Links: Japan is seeking parliamentary approval for an economic partnership agreement with Bangladesh that would remove tariffs on textile imports.